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How Donald Trump’s Policies Could Affect Phoenix Homeowners

Billionaire Donald Trump made much of his fortune as a real-estate developer.

But it’s not yet clear what his presidency will mean for the wealth of homeowners, though many of us are trying to figure it out.

President-elect Trump’s plans for Wall Street, immigration, a border wall and builder regulations could all impact the housing market, particularly in Arizona.

Let’s examine how some of his policies could affect homeowners here:

Interest rates

The most immediate impact on the housing market came right after the election when mortgage rates jumped. Homebuyers and homeowners trying to refinance across the country were jolted as the 30-year mortgage rate jumped above 4 percent early last week. Some buyers balked, and mortgage applications fell 9 percent.

A drop in home sales can turn into slower appreciation in values and a stalled recovery. But the current higher interest rates aren’t all on Trump.

Rates were rising before the election as investors jittery about the market poured more money into Treasury notes, pushing up their yields and mortgage rates.

Banks and lending

One thing we do know is Trump wants to quickly dismantle the Dodd-Frank law that went into effect six years ago in the middle of the crash. Dodd-Frank covers a lot including protecting consumers from predatory lending and regulating banks from getting too big to fail as well as investing in hedge funds. The goal of the package is to prevent a repeat of the crash.

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“If the government decides to dismantle Dodd-Frank as proposed, allowing banks to grow even bigger, credit availability could loosen nationwide,” said Ali Wolf, manager of housing economics for the national real-estate firm Meyers Research.

“Proponents, including former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, believe Dodd-Frank was a ‘disastrous mistake’ that kept credit markets too tight,” Wolf added.

Mark Stapp, real-estate expert and director of the Master of Real Estate Development program at Arizona State University, told me that any impact on the capital markets that make it easier to get a loan would be positive.

But there’s concern among other housing advocates that too loose of lending guidelines get us back to the bad loans that led to the boom and crash.

Immigration

What could affect the housing market the most in Arizona are the president-elect’s plans to deport undocumented workers and build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico.

Originally, Trump’s plan called for deporting 11 million immigrants living illegally in the U.S. More recently, he said he would focus on deporting a smaller number, particularly the criminals living illegally in the country.

Arizona housing analyst Mike Orr said the number of deportations are key.

“Will he deport 10,000, 2 million, 3 million or 12 million, and over what time period?” Orr said in an analysis for this column.

He said 10,000 will have no significant impact on metro Phoenix’s housing market. Two million “will create significantly lower demand for housing. And 12 million would devastate housing.”

Building a wall would impact Arizona’s population but also will likely mean more jobs while its being built in our border state, he said.

About 190,000 metro Phoenix residents aren’t in the U.S. legally, according to national research. That many people translates to about 100,000 Valley households.

“Overall, a smaller population means a smaller economy,” Orr said about both immigration and the proposed wall.

Proponents of Trump’s immigration plan, including Sen. John Kavanagh, R-Fountain Hills, have told me the Trump deportation plan can benefit metro Phoenix’s housing market..

“It’s a solution to getting more affordable housing,” he said. “The argument suggests that if people here illegally left, no one would take their place. I don’t think that’s true.”

Kavanagh believes the jobs and homes left vacant by Trump’s deportation plan would be filled by “millions of people who are waiting to come here legally.”

We all will be watching this closely.

Builder regulations

Homebuilding hasn’t recovered from the crash in metro Phoenix, though that part of the market is having its best year in nearly a decade.

In an August speech to the National Association of Home Builders, Trump said the homebuilding industry is overregulated

He estimated that 25 percent of the cost of a home comes from regulations and said the figure should be closer to 2 percent.

Arizona has much lower homebuilding regulation costs than California and the East Coast, so this move by the president-elect could have a smaller impact here.

Also, Stapp said, “claims of eliminating regulations to lower fees are suspect because most are local and not federal.”

He thinks a Trump policy that focuses more on helping increase demand from homebuyers instead of trying to “marginally” cut federal building costs will be better for the housing market.

Trump inherits an economy with a housing market nearly recovered from a catastrophic crash. President Barack Obama came into office eight years ago as the economy and real-estate markets were in free fall.

Now that the new president will be renting at the White House, it’s important for our incoming president to redirect his real-estate expertise from his own portfolio to the nation’s homeowners.

Phoenix Residential Market Report ~ October 2016

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The current real time market profile shows there were approximately 10,023 new listings (up 85 listings from last month) on the market in October 2016 and 7,100 sold transactions. The overall inventory of homes on the market is down -16.4% in October 2016 as compared to the number of home on the marker in August 2014. The current number of home on the market is equivalent to houses on the market in September 2015 but due to the greater demand this year the low inventory of homes on the market may cause prices to appreciate at a faster rate. There is currently 22,986 listing on the market and 7,100 sold transactions which equates to 3.2 months of inventory at the market.

In July 2016, the average sold price took a steep dive south to $272,845. The month of October the average sold price increased approximately +4.4% to $284,888 which is higher than the average price in June 2016 at $282,879. Historically, as we enter the winter holiday season the number of sold transaction will decrease but since 2014 the average sold price increased. In 2014, the average sold price increased +5.3% from September to December and in 2015 the average sold price increased +3.6%. Another interesting factor to consider is how the election of our new president will affect real estate prices. After the election mortgage interest rates increased making it harder for people to buy. Since November 2015 (12 months ago), the average sold price has increased approximately +7.6% (up from last month), the average days on market has increased approximately +1.4% (up from last month) and the number of sold transactions has increased approximately +32.4% (down from last month).

The volume of foreclosure purchases since November 2015 (12 months ago) has decreased approximately -22.2% and the volume of short sales decreased of approximately -15.1%. Since August 2013 the number of foreclosures have decreased -298.7% indicating a healthy market. Also, since August 2013 the volume of short sales have decreased -451.6% because the inventory of homes “up-side-down” have been exhausted and values have risen to a point where consumers can break-even or sell with some equity but some homeowners are still up-side-down if they purchased their homes between 2005 and 2007.

Since November 2015 (12 months ago), the number of homes for sale on the market have decreased approximately -2.5% or 23,585 homes for sale on the market to a gradual decrease of 22,986 homes. The total number of listings is low as compared to 26,076 listings in August 2014. This decrease in the number of homes for sale indicates we are currently in a seller’s market (low supply and increased demand).

Real estate prices are still relatively low (near 2008 prices), mortgage rates are still at a historical low and the macroeconomic market is improving both in terms of prices and the overall economy. Give us a call to discuss your best buying or selling strategy, TODAY!!

Position Realty
Office: 480-213-5251

Phoenix Residential Market Report ~ September 2016

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The current real time market profile shows there were approximately 9,938 new listings (up 606 listings from last month) on the market in September 2016 and 7,442 sold transactions. The overall inventory of homes on the market is down -16.4% in September 2016 as compared to the number of home on the marker in August 2014. The current number of home on the market is equivalent to houses on the market in September 2015 but due to the greater demand this year the low inventory of homes on the market may cause prices to appreciate at a faster rate. There is currently 21,738 listing on the market and 7,442 sold transactions which equates to 2.7 months of inventory at the market. Historically, 2.9 months of inventory on the market which is the lowest the Phoenix market has seen June 2013.

In July 2016 the average sold price took a steep dive south as well as the number of sold transactions. The month of September the average sold price increased approximately +2.4% to $282,128 and is approximately back to the average price in June 2016 at $282,879. Historically, as we enter the winter holiday season the number of sold transaction decrease but since 2014 the average sold price increased. In 2014, the average sold price increased +5.3% from September to December and in 2015 the average sold price increased +3.6%. Since October 2015 (12 months ago), the average sold price has increased approximately +7.2% (up from last month), the average days on market have is unchanged (down from last month) and the number of sold transactions have increased approximately +17.4% (down from last month).

The volume of foreclosure purchases since October 2015 (12 months ago) has decreased approximately -17.9% and the volume of short sales decreased of approximately -25.8%. Since August 2013 the number of foreclosures have decreased -211.7% indicating a healthy market. Also, since August 2013 the volume of short sales have decreased -479.7% because the inventory of homes “up-side-down” have been exhausted and values have risen to a point where consumers can break-even or sell with some equity but some homeowners are still up-side-down if they purchased their homes between 2005 and 2007.

Since October 2015 (12 months ago), the number of homes for sale on the market have decreased approximately -8.5% or 21,754 homes for sale on the market to a gradual decrease of 21,738 homes. The total number of listings is low as compared to 26,076 listings in August 2014. This decrease in the number of homes for sale indicates we are currently in a seller’s market (low supply and increased demand).

Real estate prices are still relatively low (near 2008 prices), mortgage rates are still at a historical low and the macroeconomic market is improving both in terms of prices and the overall economy. Give us a call to discuss your best buying or selling strategy, TODAY!!

Position Realty
Office: 480-213-5251

Phoenix Real Estate Market Report ~ August 2016

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The current real time market profile shows there were approximately 9,332 new listings (up 291 listings from last month) on the market in August 2016 and 7,936 sold transactions. Since August 2016 the overall inventory of homes on the market is down -16.4% as compared to the number of home on the marker in August 2014. Current demand is equivalent to demand for housing experienced in August 2015 but due to the greater demand this year the lower inventory of homes on the market may cause prices to appreciate at a faster rate. There is currently 21,873 listing on the market and 7,963 sold transaction which equates to 2.7 months of inventory on the market. Historically, 2.7 months of inventory on the market is the lowest the Phoenix market has seen June 2013.

In July 2016 the average sold price took a steep dive south as well as the number of sold transactions. The month of August the average sold price increased approximately +1.0% to $275,642 but is still down -2.6% from June 2016 at $282,879. This could be the temporary price decrease due to the upcoming presidential election. Last year’s summer buying season was weak where we saw prices decrease from June to September. This month the number of transaction increased 194 transactions which is a small increase as compared to prior months. Since September 2015 (12 months ago), the average sold price has increased approximately +6.0% (up from last month), the average days on market have increased approximately +7.0% (up from last month) and the number of sold transactions have increased approximately +14.1% (up from last month).

The volume of foreclosure purchases since September 2015 (12 months ago) has decreased approximately -28.1% and the volume of short sales increased of approximately +1.3%. Since August 2013 the number of foreclosures have decreased -228.3% indicating a healthy market. Also, since August 2013 the volume of short sales have decreased -344.2% because the inventory of homes “up-side-down” have been exhausted and values have risen to a point where consumers can break-even or sell with some equity but some homeowners are still up-side-down if they purchased their homes between 2005 and 2007.

Since September 2015 (12 months ago), the number of homes for sale on the market have increased approximately +0.4% or 21,778 homes for sale on the market to a gradual increase of 21,873 homes. The total number of listings is low as compared to 26,076 listings in August 2014. This decrease in the number of homes for sale indicates we are currently in a seller’s market (low supply and increased demand).

Real estate prices are still relatively low (near 2008 prices), mortgage rates are still at a historical low and the macroeconomic market is improving both in terms of prices and the overall economy. Give us a call to discuss your best buying or selling strategy, TODAY!!

Position Realty
Office: 480-213-5251

Phoenix Residential Market Report ~ June 2016

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The current real time market profile shows there were approximately 9,920 new listings (down 153 listings from last month) on the market in June 2016 and 8,977 sold transactions. Since the beginning of the year the number of new listings has exceeded the number of sold transactions by +10.5% but the overall inventory of homes on the market is down -15.3% as compared to the number of home on the marker in June 2014. Demand is equivalent to demand experienced in June 2015 but with lower inventory of homes on the market home prices will start to appreciate at a faster rate.

Since September 2015 the average sold price has formed a new upward trend where each month the average sold price has gradually increased. Last year’s summer buying season was weak where we saw prices decrease from June to September. This month buyers demand has stays strong so we should continue to see the Phoenix real estate market continue to appreciate which is good news for sellers. Since July 2015 (12 months ago), the average sold price has increased approximately +7.6% (up from last month), the average days on market have decreased approximately -1.3% (down from last month) and the number of sold transactions have increased approximately +12.6% (up from last month).

The volume of foreclosure purchases since July 2015 (12 months ago) has decreased approximately -30.5% and the volume of short sales decreased of approximately -53.3%. Since November 2014 the volume of foreclosure purchases went up and now the trend is back down once again. Also, since August 2013 the volume of short sale purchases have decreased -414.3% because the inventory of homes “up-side-down” have been exhausted and values have risen to a point where consumers can break-even or sell with some equity but some homeowners are still up-side-down depending if they purchased their homes between 2005 and 2007.

Since July 2015 (12 months ago), the number of homes for sale on the market have increased approximately +5.3% or 22,129 homes for sale on the market to a gradual increase of 23,298 homes. The total number of listings is low as compared to 28,776 listings in May 2014. This decrease in the number of homes for sale indicates we are currently in a seller’s market (low supply and increased demand).

Real estate prices are still relatively low (near 2008 prices), mortgage rates are still at a historical low and the macroeconomic market is improving both in terms of prices and the overall economy. Give us a call to discuss your best buying or selling strategy, TODAY!!

Position Realty
Office: 480-213-5251

Phoenix Real Estate Market Report ~ May 2016

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The current real time market profile shows there were approximately 10,041 new listings (down 1,013 listings from last month) on the market in May 2016 and 8,844 sold transactions. Since the beginning of the year the number of new listings has exceeded the number of sold transactions by +13.5% but the overall inventory of homes on the market is down -15.8% as compared to the number of home on the marker in May 2014. Demand is equivalent to demand experienced in May 2015 but with lower inventory of homes on the market home prices will start to appreciate at a faster rate.

Since June 2015 (12 months ago), the average sold price has increased approximately +3.9% (up from last month), the average days on market have decreased approximately -2.6% (down from last month) and the number of sold transactions have increased approximately +1.7% (up from last month). Since the month of September 2015 the average sold price has formed a new upward trend where each month the average sold price has gradually increased. Last year’s summer buying season was weak where we saw prices decrease from June to September. As long as buyer demand stays strong until September we should continue to see the Phoenix real estate market appreciate over the summer months.

The volume of foreclosure purchases since June 2015 (12 months ago) has decreased approximately -43.8% and the volume of short sales decreased of approximately -30.0%. Since November 2014 the volume of foreclosure purchases went up and now the trend is back down once again. Also, since August 2013 the volume of short sale purchases have decreased -365.3% because the inventory of homes “up-side-down” have been exhausted and values have risen to a point where consumers can break-even or sell with some equity but some homeowners are still up-side-down depending if they purchased their homes between 2005 and 2007.

Since June 2015 (12 months ago), the number of homes for sale on the market have increased approximately +10.5% or 22,475 homes for sale on the market to a gradual increase of 24,840 homes. The total number of listings is low as compared to 28,776 listings in May 2014. This decrease in the number of homes for sale indicates we are currently in a seller’s market (low supply and increased demand).

Real estate prices are still relatively low (near 2008 prices), mortgage rates are still at a historical low and the macroeconomic market is improving both in terms of prices and the overall economy. Give us a call to discuss your best buying or selling strategy, TODAY!!

Position Realty
Office: 480-213-5251

Phoenix Residential Market Report ~ March 2016

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The current real time market profile shows there were approximately 11,402 new listings (up 745 from last month) on the market in March 2016 and 8,457 sold transactions. Since the beginning of the year the number of new listings has exceeded the number of sold transactions but the number of sold transactions is 7.2% higher the number of transaction in March 2015. This could be a good sign the summer buying season will be strong than last year.

Since April 2015 (12 months ago), the average sold price has increased approximately +1.3% (up from last month), the average days on market have decreased approximately -6.0% (down from last month) and the number of sold transactions have increased approximately +0.6% (up from last month). Since the month of September 2015 the average sold price has formed a new upward trend where each month the average sold price has gradually increased. Last year’s summer buying season was weak where we saw prices decrease from June to September. As long as buyer demand stays strong until September we should continue to see the Phoenix real estate market appreciate over the summer months.

The volume of foreclosure purchases since April 2015 (12 months ago) has decreased approximately -40.2% and the volume of short sales decreased of approximately -21.8%. Since November 2014 the volume of foreclosure purchases went up and now the trend is back down once again. Also, since August 2013 the volume of short sale purchases have consistently decreased because the inventory of homes “up-side-down” have been exhausted and values have risen to a point where consumers can break-even or sell with some equity but some homeowners are still up-side-down depending if they purchased their homes between 2005 and 2007.

Since April 2015 (12 months ago), the number of homes for sale on the market have increased approximately +1.5% or 24,965 homes for sale on the market to a gradual decrease of 25,329 homes. The total number of listings is still low as compared to 29,308 listings in April 2014. This decrease in the number of homes for sale indicates we are currently in a seller’s market (low supply and increased demand).

Real estate prices are still relatively low (near 2008 prices), mortgage rates are still at a historical low and the macroeconomic market is improving both in terms of prices and the overall economy. Give us a call to discuss your best investment strategy, TODAY!!

Position Realty
Office: 480-213-5251

Phoenix Residential Market ~ February 2016

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The current real time market profile (properties for sale) shows there were approximately 10,648 new listings (up 94 listings from last month) on the market in February 2016 and 5,833 sold transactions. Since the beginning of the year the number of new listings has exceeded the number of sold transactions which the recent interest rate increase by the Fed may entice property owners to sell and tighter mortgage underwriting guidelines for borrowers are preventing new purchases.

Since March 2015 (12 months ago), the average sold price has increased approximately +5.9% (up from last month), the average days on market have decreased approximately -9.8% (up from last month) and the number of sold transactions have decreased approximately -25.5% (up from last month). Since the month of September 2015 the average sold price has formed a new upward trend where each month the average sold price has gradually increased. Last year’s summer buying season was weak where we saw price decreases from June to September. If the number of new listings continues to increase and the number of sold transactions decreases, then prices in the summer may start to decrease again in 2016. Let’s hope this summer’s buying season is better than last year.

The volume of foreclosure purchases since March 2015 (12 months ago) has decreased approximately -38.8% and the volume of short sales decreased of approximately -28.6%. Since November 2014 the volume of foreclosure purchases went up and now the trend is back down once again. Also, since August 2013 the volume of short sale purchases have consistently decreased because the inventory of homes “up-side-down” have been exhausted and values have risen to a point where consumers can break-even or sell with some equity but some homeowners are still up-side-down depending if they purchased their homes between 2005 and 2007.

Since March 2015 (12 months ago), the number of homes for sale on the market have decreased approximately -1.4% or 25,745 homes for sale on the market to a gradually decrease of 25,221 homes. The total number of listings is still low as compared to 29,308 listings in April 2014. This decrease in the number of homes for sale indicates we are currently in a seller’s market (low supply and increased demand).

Real estate prices are still relatively low (near 2008 prices), mortgage rates are still at a historical low and the macroeconomic market is improving both in terms of prices and the overall economy. Give us a call to discuss your best investment strategy, TODAY!!

Position Realty
Office: 480-213-5251

Phoenix Residential Market Report ~ January 2016

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The current real time market profile shows there were approximately 10,742 new listings (up 4,607 from last month) on the market in January 2016 and 5,194 sold transactions. Since the beginning of the year the number of new listings has exceeded the number of sold transactions which the recent interest rate increase by the Fed may entice property owners to sell and tighter mortgage underwriting guidelines for borrowers are preventing new purchases. The number of total listing is still low as compared to 29,308 listings in April 2014 but this dramatic increase in the number of listings could be a sign for market reversal.

Since February 2015 (12 months ago), the average sold price has increased approximately +7.5% (up from last month), the average days on market have decreased approximately -16.0% (up from last month) and the number of sold transactions have decreased approximately -10.6% (down from last month). Since the month of May 2014 the average sold price has teeter tottered up and down with no upward trend but in April 2015 the average sold price jumped higher than the last 12 months. Last year’s summer buying season was strong where we saw prices decrease from July to September but during the holiday season prices started to increase. If the number of new listings continues to increase and the number of sold transactions decreases, then prices may start to decrease again in 2016. Let’s hope this summer’s buying season is better than last year.

The volume of foreclosure purchases since February 2015 (12 months ago) has decreased approximately -42.5% and the volume of short sales decreased of approximately -36.1%. Since November 2014 the volume of foreclosure purchases went up and now the trend is back down once again. Also, since August 2013 the volume of short sale purchases have consistently decreased because the inventory of homes “up-side-down” have been exhausted and values have risen to a point where consumers can break-even or sell with some equity but some homeowners are still up-side-down depending if they purchased their homes between 2005 and 2007.

Since February 2015 (12 months ago), the number of homes for sale on the market have decreased approximately -9.5% or 25,745 homes for sale on the market to a gradually decrease of 23,699 homes. We will have to keep an eye on the number of new listings coming on the market and buyer demand over the next few months to determine if the market is shifting once again.

Real estate prices are still relatively low (near 2008 prices), mortgage rates are still at a historical low and the macroeconomic market is improving both in terms of prices and the overall economy. Give us a call to discuss your best investment strategy, TODAY!!

Position Realty
Office: 480-213-5251

Phoenix Residential Market Report ~ December 2015

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The current real time market profile shows there were approximately 6,131 new listings (down from last month) on the market in December 2015 and 6,737 sold transactions. Since the beginning of the year the number of new listings has exceeded the number of sold transactions but in December the number of sold transactions exceeded the number of new listings coming on the market. The number of total listing is still low as compared to 29,308 listings in April 2014 and this shift may be the direct results of the holidays.

Since January 2015 (12 months ago), the average sold price has increased approximately +5.5% (up from last month), the average days on market have decreased approximately -17.9% (up from last month) and the number of sold transactions have increased approximately +41.4% (up from last month). Since the month of May 2014 the average sold price has teeter tottered up and down with no upward trend but in April 2015 the average sold price jumped higher than the last 12 months. The summer buying season was strong where we saw prices decrease from July to September but during the holiday season prices are starting increase. The current average sold price is approximately $269,000 which is up +5.5% since January 2015.

The volume of foreclosure purchases since January 2015 (12 months ago) has decreased approximately -30.8% but the volume of short sales saw a slight increase of approximately +7.2%. Since November 2014 the volume of foreclosure purchases went up and now the trend is back down once again. Also, since August 2013 the volume of short sale purchases have consistently decreased because the inventory of homes “up-side-down” have been exhausted and values have risen to a point where consumers can break-even or sell with some equity but some homeowners are still up-side-down depending if they purchased their homes between 2005 and 2007. The slight increase in short sales in December could be due to banks wanting to get these assets off their books before the beginning of the new year.

Since January 2015 (12 months ago), the number of homes for sale on the market have decreased approximately -9.3% or 25,745 homes for sale on the market to a gradually decrease of 23,353 homes. This decrease in the number of homes for sale could be a sign the market is beginning to shift once again back to a seller’s market (low supply and increased demand).

Real estate prices are still relatively low (near 2008 prices), mortgage rates are still at a historical low and the macroeconomic market is improving both in terms of prices and the overall economy. Give us a call to discuss your best investment strategy, TODAY!!

Position Realty
Office: 480-213-5251

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